[Ibogaine] O.T. why we import oil
crownofthorns1313 at yahoo.com
Mon May 2 03:39:53 EDT 2011
Thanks for the enlightening message. Lots here to think about, it's a little
strange to be in a situation where it's possible to have those thoughts, so how
would I want to invest $5,000 or $10,000.
From: you're it <mmmm.i.like.that at gmail.com>
To: The Ibogaine List <ibogaine at mindvox.com>
Sent: Sun, May 1, 2011 1:54:42 AM
Subject: Re: [Ibogaine] O.T. why we import oil
Our oil is not 9 cents a gallon because we are not an oil producing nation. We
only have 2-3% of the world's proven oil reserves no matter what anyone says.
We have a shitload of natural gas. It's been costing me a bundle to fill up
Many of you have been so helpful to me as I’m learning about addiction and
iboga that I’m happy to find something that I can comment on where I sort of
If you’re concerned about money you’ve got in stocks or want to know more about
the stock market in general and a commone sense idea I've used to make some
money, you might find this interesting. Otherwise, you know where the delete
key is. This is a long post. I was bored today and this is a subject I like
to wax on about.
I’d like to share two of the techniques that have worked well for me over the
years. I spent a lot of years at the CME and CBOT, the commodity futures
exchange here as a broker and advisor. I never made any real big money like
you read about, but I did have a few great years and some nice scores that I
lived off of for periods afterwards.
I did learn a lot from studying and talking to some of the really smart people
I met there who did make a lot of money. I also made a lot of serious mistakes
that have pissed away money I made doing other things. Almost all of those
mistakes were made in futures like grains and meats, not stocks. Not many of
us learn anything other than the hard way?
In stocks, my best strategy has been to buy a company where I love the product
or service. Some examples of this are Microsoft (remember the first time you
used windows from ms-dos, I do). I bought Dish Network which did well even
when tech crashed in 2000. In 99, ATT Cable (before Comcast bought them) pissed
me off and Dish’s picture quality and service was amazing. Dish went up 600%
and ATT went 70%), so always trust your gut unless it betrays you. Other
companies who have great products or who I really like shopping with are Amazon,
Heineken (no brainer for me), google, and netflix. They all did very well.
In 07, I saw the economic trouble coming and I bought Dollar Tree. I stopped in
and like the store and I figured that’s where a lot of people would be
shopping. The company and it’s earnings were growing, so I sold my S&P Index
(SPY) and bought it. The stock has doubled in 2 years when most stocks got
their asses kicked before some of them came back. My friends who were in bank
or car company stocks lost big.
In 95, I bought a pc. I researched that Dell had the best ratings and service
and no sales tax by mail order. I paid $2,000 for the pc. If I’d put that $$
into the stock, it would’ve been worth $60-$80,000 when the desktop was a $20
paperweight 3-4 years later. That’s when I got the idea.
We were at 1500 in the S&P 500 in 2000 and 2008. We are now around 1350. That
means we have gone nowhere in stocks in 11 years. Unless you were invested in
the small % of companies that did really well, or timed the market well, you
didn’t make much money these last 10-11 years.
Commodities such as oil, gold, and grains have been better investments, but they
were low and were losers for a lot of years before that. Timing the cycle for
whatever you’re trying to invest in is important.
Below is a chart of the S&P 500 that shows the last 13 years. Every vertical
bar is a month. The opinion of most expert’s opinion is that most people
should be invested in the market as a whole as opposed to having too much risk
in one company or one sector and that holding stocks for the average persons
30-40 years working years should pay off. That has worked for the general
stock market for many decades.
There are exceptions. My friends who work for the airlines that kept their
retirement funds in the company stock got pantsed real good. Even if you’ve
only got a very small portfolio, you should spread it around. The S&P 500 is
the most used index for investing in the market as a whole.
The lines on this chart are called Bollinger Bands. The red line is an simple
moving average of the final price of each of the last 20 months. The other two
lines above and below are extrapolations on that average that are sometimes good
indicators or overbought or oversold conditions that shorter term traders use.
There’s a lot more to defining whether we are in a healthy uptrend in prices or
changing trend from up to down, but, whether we are above or below that red 20
month average is one the most basic and pretty reliable measures of whether
stocks (or anything) is strong or weak. This is only one basic yardstick, but
when stocks break below this average, it’s a serious danger sign where you
should look at what you’re holding. Some advisers use 50 week or 100 week
averages to gauge the same thing.
There are more indicators and fundamental information that traders look at to
tell if the stock market or a stock or future is overbought or oversold such as
supply/demand, earnings and growth, and major economic factors. I won’t go into
that here, but if anyone wants to talk investing, feel free to email me and I’ll
be glad to help out if I can. Momentum is very important and is often the best
signal of trend change in the short and long term. We made new highs in early
February but there was no movement to the upside at those new highs for this
bull market for a whole week. A sharp 10% drop followed that I knew was coming
with about 90% certainty, but the fact that we have quickly recovered that
ground tells me that stock prices are going higher, at least for now. Debt is
a problem, but no one is freaking out about it yet while the Fortune and S&P
500’s are still making money.
Historically, up markets last longer, but down markets can be vicious. 25-40%
declines over a year or two are common. If you’re making a good income and can
wait it out, stocks have always come back, but a lot of people can’t afford to
take that chance. Stocks didn’t recover after the 1929 crash until 20 years
later after WW2. I don’t know if the major problems we’re having now will
lead to a repeat like that, but we’ve never had this kind of debt and job less
before in my lifetime.
We’ve had a stock boom pretty much since 84, but a lot of it was artificial
because our economy was goosed by Reagan and later W. Bush when they gave an
almost 50% tax cut from the top rates. That did create an artificial boom that
drove annual gains on stocks to well over 20%, well over the historical average
for a number of years in the 80’s and 90’s. The tech heavy Nasdaq index lost
80% of it’s value in 1999 after being driven up by speculation the same way our
housing was from 02-06. Only a handful of those companies have thrived past the
expectations a lot of people had for them in 1998 and early 1999.
Now we have 14 Trillion dollars in debt and an out of control budget driven
largely by military spending and health care costs, or in my opinion,
profiteering in both. Whether our run is over is a good question, but the
evidence for higher prices is very strong and I’d bet on more strong gains in
the short term.
I’ve usually got the right ideas, but I don’t have the stress tolerance for it
anymore. I have bad migraines and I don’t deal well with the stress of trading
well anymore. If I had more energy and health, I’d think seriously about
getting back into it.
The stock market is one of the strongest upswings I’ve seen in many years and
goes back to the stimulus 2 years ago. We’ve only had a few brief down periods
since it turned back up in spring 09. As the chart of the Nasdaq at the end of
this post shows, we’ve had a bull market going all the way back to the 70’s, and
it really extends to the 50’s. This country has
had a hell of a run.
The market shows no signs of trouble yet, despite us having massive debt and no
shortage of serious economic problems. Gold has doubled in 3 years and it’s
partly because of a lack of confidence in the major currencies of the world.
That’s a horrible sign of potential problems to come with Ireland, Greece, CA,
and IL essentially bankrupt. I’m not a doomsday type guy, but I know from
history that it can happen.
If you think about it, what other currency but Gold has stuck around through
most of our world history? The British Pound is the oldest at about 800 years.
They had a nice empire for a lot of those years. I wonder if ours dollar will
be around that long? Sucking all the money and jobs out of our economy and
leaving us neck deep in debt was one of the largest train robberies in the
history of the world.
The stock market is making strong gains because companies are making lots of
money, but more and more of those profits are coming from overseas operations
where people will work for rice and beans. It’s ironic that the tax cuts that
have helped bankrupt our treasury have partly paid for this.
Now that we have 2 years of stocks moving up, there will be a time when the
climate changes and it’ll be a good time to move out of stocks for a while, so
being cautious and checking on gains every week or two is probably a good idea
if you can’t afford to lose what you have invested.
There are lots of ways to tell when a trend is at an end or when one is starting
and I know quite a few of them, but this may be the simplest and easiest.
Every 2-6 years, like 2008, 9/11, and 99, we have a crash. That’s when most
people really take losses. It’s hard to avoid them completely, but you can see
them coming for the most part if you use common sense and can spend 10 minutes a
week looking for danger signs (or have someone that is).
In 08/early 09, the stock market lost around 50% of it’s value. Many formerly
prominent stocks went to zero (banks, car companies) or close to it. Those are
the events that you want to avoid if you can or take advantage of. As much
debt and jobs and housing problems as we have, another one is probably coming,
but with the market making new highs and advancing every month, it’s not here
In late 2006 and early 2007, I read all the news about problems emerging in our
housing market. I also saw that the stock market had been going up for 4.5
years pretty much steady after we got over the worst economic effects of 9/11
(the last crash since the 99/00 tech burst). Then I realized who was President
and I just knew in my heart that good times would not last. He hadn’t made too
many good decisions and not monitoring the banks and mortgage companies was a
big mistake. My gut said that the market was too high and had gone too far.
When I thought about it some more , I knew housing was a joke as I could’ve got
a mortgage for my dog from 2003-2006 and people had pushed prices way too
high. I wasn’t smart enough to short sell the banks, but that and taking
profits/reducing your stock holdings was the best ideas. I did one of them. The
national debt had doubled and so had oil prices. Those are clear warnings
I sold out 80% of my small stock portfolio, mostly bought in 2002, in August 07
and the only stock I bought then with that cash was dollar tree. I was a few
months early, but it worked. When prices came way down in late 08/early 09, I
took the hint and bought Amazon. I missed Netflix, even though I love the
service. That sharp decline stopped pretty much right where the crash after
9/11 stopped. That isn’t unusual. I suspect we’ll have the same problems
going higher when we get near 1500 on the SP, which is the 2000 and 2007
On Wed, Apr 27, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Sister <sisterwind at verizon.net> wrote:
did I miss the reason? 50 bucks to fill my tank yesterday. I drive a 4cyl.
seabring and it eats 18m/gal. Lucky I am not the best driver and others will
take the wheel if they are with me... I dont pleasure drive. I cant afford
this... I spend 50 bucks a week on fruits, food is getting outragous and to add
this on top... kiling me. I am now having to pick what I can do without. Lucky
I dont really care that much about meat so that is what I will go without this
month. How do folks that make minimal wage live. When working full time I
lived from pay check to pay check and now have to work another part time job to
make my bills. I am older and dont have car note, been living in my home since
87' so my house note is not outragouse.. for those that have 1200 bucks for
rent/houseing ... I just cant see how they make it. I do believe it will be
>Thinking it time to take my loses and get out of the stock market game also. I
>fear if I wait too much longer my looses will only increase and will loose it
>all. Hate to cash in all my stocks. they were a coushion for me....
>--- On Wed, 4/27/11, Jim Hadey <jimhadey3 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>>From: Jim Hadey <jimhadey3 at yahoo.com>
>>Subject: [Ibogaine] O.T. why we import oil
>>To: "Ibogaine" <Ibogaine at mindvox.com>
>>Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2011, 9:17 AM
>>A bud sent me this and I thought I would share it.
>>This is why we import oil. It makes so much sense.
>>I'm sure you noticed the price of gas going up but
>>they never give a valid reason in fact consumption
>>is down. Anyway this is the best explanation I have
>> - JIM
>>> SURPRISE SURPRISE SURPRISE
>>>>>Prices are quoted in US dollars per gallon for regular unleaded as of
>>>>>Oslo, Norway $6.82
>>>>>Brussels, Belgium $6.16
>>>>>London, UK $5.96
>>>>>Rome, Italy $5.80
>>>>>Tokyo, Japan $5.25
>>>>>Sao Paul o , Brazil $4.42
>>>>>New Delhi, India $3.71
>>>>>Sidney, Australia $3.42
>>>>>Johannesburg , South Africa $3.39
>>>>>Buenos Aires, Argentina $2.09
>>>>>... YOU'RE GONNA LOVE THIS ....
>>>>>Riyadh, Saudi Arabia $0.09
>>>>>Caracas, Venezuela $0.12
>>>>>Gee, if only the U.S. was an oil producing nation.....
>>>>>Hey, wait a minute!!! We are!!! What the hell happened !?
>>-----Inline Attachment Follows-----
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