[Ibogaine] O.T. why we import oil

you're it mmmm.i.like.that at gmail.com
Sun May 1 01:54:42 EDT 2011

Our oil is not 9 cents a gallon because we are not an oil producing
nation.   We only have 2-3% of the world's proven oil reserves no matter
what anyone says.    We have a shitload of natural gas.   It's been costing
me a bundle to fill up lately too.

 Many of you have been so helpful to me as I’m learning about addiction and
iboga that I’m happy to find something that I can comment on where I sort of
know something.

If you’re concerned about money you’ve got in stocks or want to know more
about the stock market in general and a commone sense idea I've used to make
some money,  you might find this interesting.  Otherwise, you know where the
delete key is.    This is a long post.   I was bored today and this is a
subject I like to wax on about.

I’d like to share two of the techniques that have worked well for me over
the years.   I spent a lot of years at the CME and CBOT, the commodity
futures exchange here as a broker and advisor.   I never made any real  big
money like you read about, but I did have a few great years and some nice
scores that I lived off of for periods afterwards.

 I did learn a lot from studying and talking to some of the really smart
people I met there who did make a lot of money.  I also made a lot of
serious mistakes that have pissed away money I made doing other things.
Almost all of those mistakes were made in futures like grains and meats, not
stocks.    Not many of us learn anything other than the hard way?

In stocks, my best strategy has been to buy a company where I love the
product or service.   Some examples of this are Microsoft (remember the
first time you used windows from ms-dos, I do).   I bought Dish Network
which did well even when tech crashed in 2000.  In 99, ATT Cable (before
Comcast bought them) pissed me off and Dish’s picture quality and service
was amazing.   Dish went up 600% and ATT went 70%), so always trust your
gut unless it betrays you.   Other companies who have great products or
who I really like shopping with are Amazon, Heineken (no brainer for me),
google, and netflix.   They all did very well.

In 07, I saw the economic trouble coming and I bought Dollar Tree.  I
stopped in and like the store and I figured that’s where a lot of people
would be shopping.   The company and it’s earnings were growing, so I sold
my  S&P Index (SPY) and bought it.  The stock has doubled in 2 years when
most stocks got their asses kicked before some of them came back.   My
friends who were in bank or car company stocks lost big.

In 95, I bought a pc.  I researched that Dell had the best ratings and
service and no sales tax by mail order.   I paid $2,000 for the pc.  If I’d
put that $$ into the stock, it would’ve been worth $60-$80,000 when the
desktop was a $20 paperweight 3-4 years later.   That’s when I got the idea.

We were at 1500 in the S&P 500 in 2000 and 2008.   We are now around
1350.  That
means we have gone nowhere in stocks in 11 years.   Unless you were invested
in the small % of companies that did really well, or timed the market well,
you didn’t make much money these last 10-11 years.

Commodities such as oil, gold, and grains have been better investments, but
they were low and were losers for a lot of years before that.   Timing the
cycle for whatever you’re trying to invest in is important.

Below is a chart of the S&P 500 that shows the last 13 years.  Every
vertical bar is a month.   The opinion of most expert’s opinion is that most
people should be invested in the market as a whole as opposed to having too
much risk in one company or one sector and that holding stocks for the
average persons 30-40 years working years should pay off.    That has worked
for the general stock market for many decades.

There are exceptions.  My friends who work for the airlines that kept their
retirement funds in the company stock got pantsed real good.  Even if you’ve
only got a very small portfolio, you should spread it around.   The S&P 500
is the most used index for investing in the market as a whole.

The lines on this chart are called Bollinger Bands.  The red line is an
simple moving average of the final price of each of the last 20 months.  The
other two lines above and below are extrapolations on that average that are
sometimes good indicators or overbought or oversold conditions that shorter
term traders use.

 There’s a lot more to defining whether we are in a healthy uptrend in
prices or changing trend from up to down, but, whether we are above or below
that red 20 month average is one the most basic and pretty reliable measures
of whether stocks (or anything) is strong or weak.  This is only one basic
yardstick,  but when stocks break below this average, it’s a serious danger
sign where you should look at what you’re holding.    Some advisers use 50
week or 100 week averages to gauge the same thing.


There are more indicators and fundamental information that traders look at
to tell if the stock market or a stock or future is overbought or oversold
such as supply/demand, earnings and growth, and major economic factors.  I
won’t go into that here, but if anyone wants to talk investing, feel free to
email me and I’ll be glad to help out if I can.   Momentum is very important
and is often the best signal of trend change in the short and long term.   We
made new highs in early February but there was no movement to the upside at
those new highs for this bull market for a whole week.  A sharp 10% drop
followed that I knew was coming with about 90% certainty, but the fact that
we have quickly recovered that ground tells me that stock prices are going
higher, at least for now.   Debt is a problem, but no one is freaking out
about it yet while the Fortune and S&P 500’s are still making money.

Historically, up markets last longer, but down markets can be vicious.   25-40%
declines over a year or two are common.   If you’re making a good income and
can wait it out, stocks have always come back, but a lot of people can’t
afford to take that chance.   Stocks didn’t recover after the 1929 crash
until 20 years later after WW2.    I don’t know if the major problems we’re
having now will lead to a repeat like that, but we’ve never had this kind of
debt and job less before in my lifetime.


We’ve had a stock boom pretty much since 84, but a lot of it was artificial
because our economy was goosed by Reagan and later W. Bush when they gave an
almost 50% tax cut from the top rates.  That did create an artificial boom
that drove annual gains on stocks to well over 20%, well over the historical
average for a number of years in the 80’s and 90’s.  The tech heavy Nasdaq
index lost 80% of it’s value in 1999 after being driven up by speculation
the same way our housing was from 02-06.  Only a handful of those companies
have thrived past the expectations a lot of people had for them in 1998 and
early 1999.

Now we have 14 Trillion dollars in debt and an out of control budget driven
largely by military spending and health care costs, or in my opinion,
profiteering in both.    Whether our run is over is a good question, but the
evidence for higher prices is very strong and I’d bet on more strong gains
in the short term.


I’ve usually got the right ideas, but I don’t have the stress tolerance for
it anymore.  I have bad migraines and I don’t deal well with the stress of
trading well anymore.  If I had more energy and health, I’d think seriously
about getting back into it.

The stock market is one of the strongest upswings I’ve seen in many years
and goes back to the stimulus 2 years ago.   We’ve only had a few brief down
periods since it turned back up in spring 09.  As the chart of the Nasdaq at
the end of this post shows, we’ve had a bull market going all the way back
to the 70’s, and it really extends to the 50’s.    This country has

had a hell of a run.

 The market shows no signs of trouble yet, despite us having massive debt
and no shortage of serious economic problems.   Gold has doubled in 3 years
and it’s partly because of a lack of confidence in the major currencies of
the world.  That’s a horrible sign of potential problems to come with
Ireland, Greece, CA, and IL essentially bankrupt.    I’m not a doomsday type
guy, but I know from history that it can happen.

If you think about it, what other currency but Gold has stuck around through
most of our world history?  The British Pound is the oldest at about 800
years.  They had a nice empire for a lot of those years.   I wonder if ours
dollar will be around that long?    Sucking all the money and jobs out of
our economy and leaving us neck deep in debt was one of the largest train
robberies in the history of the world.

The stock market is making strong gains because companies are making lots of
money, but more and more of those profits are coming from overseas
operations where people will work for rice and beans.  It’s ironic that the
tax cuts that have helped bankrupt our treasury have partly paid for this.

 Now that we have 2 years of stocks moving up, there will be a time when the
climate changes and it’ll be a good time to move out of stocks for a while,
so being cautious and checking on gains every week or two is probably a good
idea if you can’t afford to lose what you have invested.

There are lots of ways to tell when a trend is at an end or when one is
starting and I know quite a few of them, but this may be the simplest and

Every 2-6 years, like 2008, 9/11, and 99, we have a crash. That’s when most
people really take losses.  It’s hard to avoid them completely, but you can
see them coming for the most part if you use common sense and can spend 10
minutes a week looking for danger signs (or have someone that is).

In 08/early 09, the stock market lost around 50% of it’s value.    Many
formerly prominent stocks went to zero (banks, car companies) or close to
it.   Those are the events that you want to avoid if you can or take
advantage of.   As much debt and jobs and housing problems as we have,
another one is probably coming, but with the market making new highs and
advancing every month, it’s not here yet.

In late 2006 and early 2007, I read all the news about problems emerging in
our housing market.  I also saw that the stock market had been going up for
4.5 years pretty much steady after we got over the worst economic effects of
9/11 (the last crash since the 99/00 tech burst).   Then I realized who was
President and I just knew in my heart that good times would not last.   He
hadn’t made too many good decisions and not monitoring the banks and
mortgage companies was a big mistake.  My gut said that the market was too
high and had gone too far.

When I thought about it some more , I knew housing was a joke as I could’ve
got a mortgage for my dog from 2003-2006 and people had pushed prices way
too high.   I wasn’t smart enough to short sell the banks, but that and
taking profits/reducing your stock holdings was the best ideas. I did one of
them.  The national debt had doubled and so had oil prices.   Those are
clear warnings signs.

I sold out 80% of my small stock portfolio, mostly bought in 2002, in August
07 and the only stock I bought then with that cash was dollar tree.  I was a
few months early, but it worked.    When prices came way down in late
08/early 09, I took the hint and bought Amazon.  I missed Netflix, even
though I love the service.   That sharp decline stopped pretty much right
where the crash after 9/11 stopped.    That isn’t unusual.   I suspect we’ll
have the same problems going higher when we get near 1500 on the SP, which
is the 2000 and 2007 highs.

On Wed, Apr 27, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Sister <sisterwind at verizon.net> wrote:

>   did I miss the reason?  50 bucks to fill my tank yesterday.  I drive a
> 4cyl. seabring and it eats 18m/gal.  Lucky I am not the best driver and
> others will take the wheel if they are with me... I dont pleasure drive.  I
> cant afford this... I spend 50 bucks a week on fruits, food is getting
> outragous and to add this on top... kiling me.  I am now having to pick what
> I can do without.  Lucky I dont really care that much about meat so that is
> what I will go without this month.  How do folks that make minimal wage
> live.  When working full time I lived from pay check to pay check and now
> have to work another part time job to make my bills.  I am older and dont
> have car note, been living in  my home since 87' so my house note is not
> outragouse.. for those that have 1200 bucks for rent/houseing ... I just
> cant see how they make it.  I do believe it will be getting worse.
> Thinking it time to take my loses and get out of the stock market game
> also.  I fear if I wait too much longer my looses will only increase and
> will loose it all.  Hate to cash in all my stocks.  they were a coushion for
> me....
> --- On *Wed, 4/27/11, Jim Hadey <jimhadey3 at yahoo.com>* wrote:
> From: Jim Hadey <jimhadey3 at yahoo.com>
> Subject: [Ibogaine] O.T. why we import oil
> To: "Ibogaine" <Ibogaine at mindvox.com>
> Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2011, 9:17 AM
> A bud sent me this and I thought I would share it.
> This is why we import oil.  It makes so much sense.
> I'm sure you noticed the price of gas going up but
> they never give a valid reason in fact consumption
> is down.  Anyway this is the best explanation I have
> ever heard.
> Best,
>   - JIM
> *Prices are quoted in US dollars per gallon for regular unleaded as of
> March** **2011*
> **
> **
> [image: cid:9AB7850E-0AA4-4E83-9744-80319B1567C5]
> *Oslo**, Norway** $6.82*
> *[image: cid:D45C4723-9890-4043-B016-39B9CD404177]*
> *Hong Kong**$6.25*
> *[image: cid:E6538999-F94C-40FB-9F5E-B344BA0147CB]*
> *Brussels**, Belgium** $6.16*
> *[image: cid:A22D0FD1-2F2D-4BF4-B063-A9863A4E98F9]*
> *London**, UK** $5.96*
> *[image: cid:D67A477D-DEFD-459A-ABA0-C1324115086D]*
> *Rome**, Italy $5.80*
> [image: cid:F8B486F7-D652-4C8D-8A46-50ECA7C1CFA9]CANADA $5.36
> *[image: cid:A8B16D03-57B6-4221-AAD9-0A1A2A230FDB]*
> *Tokyo**, Japan** $5.25*
> *[image: cid:FE80001E-D280-4FD9-BAB0-70FC7508D65E]*
> *Sao Paul o , Brazil $4.42*
> *[image: cid:FCE56343-E28F-47A3-A2E0-A235FB23554C]*
> *New Delhi**, India** $3.71*
> *[image: cid:F86348B0-73DC-47B5-8D40-295CE405A734]*
> *Sidney**, Australia** $3.42*
> [image: cid:88E8E4A5-DF89-4070-BEE1-94D67ECBED28]
> *Johannesburg** , South Africa** $3.39*
> *[image: cid:E7525AA9-CAE7-43B3-8D1B-CE52DF715E59]*
> *Mexico City**$2.22*
> *[image: cid:830D5196-B98F-416C-801E-7D82BDAADA34]*
> *Buenos Aires**, Argentina** $2.09*
> *[image: cid:132244F3-90D3-4C97-86CE-D8DC3C0A34E7]*
> *Riyadh**, Saudi Arabia** $0.09*
> *[image: cid:49B5DE6D-6962-440C-A14C-4D464E0914DD]*
> *Kuwait** $0.08*
> *[image: cid:8C4AC212-5870-4694-9842-35E1ECCEDC6A]*
> *Caracas**, Venezuela** $0.12*
> Gee, if only the U.S.  was an oil producing nation.....
> Hey, wait a minute!!! We are!!!  What the hell happened !?
> -----Inline Attachment Follows-----
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